ASEAN Monitor
ASEAN Monitor (11/2025)
Another incident in the disputed border area between Thailand and Cambodia has led to an escalation of tensions in bilateral relations. The government in Bangkok has decided to suspend the implementation of the peace agreement concluded on the sidelines of the 47th ASEAN Summit. In response, the United States has suspended talks on finalizing a trade cooperation agreement with Thailand. In addition, noteworthy developments include the first-ever visit of the King of Thailand to China, as well as the announcement of a new Joint Security Treaty between Australia and Indonesia, which, once signed early next year, may serve as a model for middle powers seeking to develop security cooperation. You can download the full report from November, along with commentary, here.
ASEAN Monitor (10/2025)
During the 47th ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, the decision was made to admit Timor-Leste as the eleventh member of the association, marking the organization's first expansion in 26 years. During a series of meetings in Kuala Lumpur, a peace agreement was also signed between Thailand and Cambodia, with the participation of the US President and the Malaysian Prime Minister. In the context of Southeast Asian countries' relations with China, the signing of the updated China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA 3.0) is noteworthy. Donald Trump, in turn, concluded trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia, as well as frameworks for trade cooperation with Thailand and Vietnam. However, the summit failed to reach any key decisions due to the internal situation in Burma and the dispute in the South China Sea.You can download the full report from October, along with commentary, here.
ASEAN Monitor (7-8/2025)
In Malaysia, another meeting of foreign ministers took place, during which the accession of East Timor to ASEAN was confirmed for the 47th ASEAN Summit in October. In addition, representatives of Southeast Asian countries committed to deepening regional economic integration and strengthening energy cooperation. Tensions between Thailand and Cambodia escalated in a disputed border area, resulting in an exchange of fire. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. paid his first official visit to India, during which bilateral relations were elevated to the level of a strategic partnership. Meanwhile, Thailand’s Constitutional Court removed Paetongtarn Shinawatra from the position of prime minister, ruling that she had violated the integrity of the office by putting her own political interests above the national good. You can download the full report from July and August, along with commentary, here.
ASEAN Monitor (6/2025). Another edition of the Shangri-La Dialogue on security issues took place in Singapore. The event was attended by, among others, the President of France and the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, but the Chinese Defense Minister was absent. The incident on the disputed border area between Thailand and Cambodia at the end of May led to an escalation of tensions in bilateral relations, as well as a crisis on the domestic political scene in Thailand. Indonesia is close to finalizing a free trade agreement with the EU. The United States, the Philippines, and Japan are strengthening cooperation in the field of maritime security, as evidenced by the second edition of joint coast guard exercises, which this time took place in waters near Japan. Download the entire information from June, along with commentary, here.
ASEAN Monitor (5/2025). Another ASEAN summit and a series of related meetings were held in Kuala Lumpur, where issues related to the internal situation in Burma, the accession of East Timor, and the negotiations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea were discussed. Thailand upgraded bilateral relations with Vietnam to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and with Indonesia to a Strategic Partnership. The French President visited the region, during which he visited Vietnam, Indonesia, and Singapore, where he delivered a speech at the 22nd Shangri-La Dialogue. The US Secretary of Defense was also among the guests at the event, but for the first time since 2019, the Chinese Defense Minister did not attend the conference. Download the entire May news with commentary here.
ASEAN Monitor (4/2025). As part of his visit to Southeast Asian countries, the Chairman of the People's Republic of China held meetings in Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. During the trip, a total of 113 cooperation agreements were signed, covering trade, infrastructure, new technologies, security and health care. The Prime Minister of Japan was also present in the region, meeting with key representatives of Vietnam and the Philippines. In addition, the Philippine-American Balikatan exercises began in April, in which the armed forces of Australia and Japan actively participated. In the context of the situation in the South China Sea, the increased tensions between China and the Philippines around Sandy Cay are worth noting. Download the entire April briefing along with commentary here.
ASEAN Monitor (3/2025). Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has become the first Asian leader to be arrested at the request of the International Criminal Court (ICC) and then flown to The Hague to face charges of crimes against humanity committed as part of a nationwide anti-drug campaign. Vietnam has upgraded bilateral ties to comprehensive strategic partnerships with Indonesia and Singapore. Chinese firm CITIC is pressing Burma to speed up construction of the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone and a deep-water port under the Belt and Road Initiative. The United States has imposed visa sanctions on Thai officials responsible for the deportation of 40 Uighurs to China. Download the entire March news with commentary here.
ASEAN Monitor (2/2025). During the visit of the New Zealand Prime Minister to Hanoi, the status of bilateral relations was raised to a comprehensive strategic partnership. In the context of Vietnam, it is also worth noting the approval by the parliament of a plan to build a railway line to China worth over USD 8 billion, which will be partially financed by Chinese loans. The first decisions of the Donald Trump administration were met with concern from Vietnam and Thailand in the context of the specter of imposing new tariffs that will reduce the American trade deficit. In turn, Malaysia and Indonesia have announced their opposition to the US president's plans for the Gaza Strip. Download the entire February briefing along with commentary here.
ASEAN Monitor (1/2025). One of the most high-profile events in early 2025 was Indonesia joining BRICS, becoming the first Southeast Asian country in the group. Everything indicates that Malaysia and Thailand may soon join as well, as they expressed such a desire in 2024. From a Polish perspective, an event worth noting was the first visit of the Prime Minister of Vietnam since 2007, which took place on the occasion of the celebrations of the 75th anniversary of the establishment of official diplomatic relations. Also noteworthy is the continued escalation of tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, despite the holding of the 10th meeting of the bilateral cooperation mechanism. Download the entire January news release along with commentary here.
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