05.07.2023
During the last few months, we have witnessed unexpected events undertaken at the United Nations and regarding relations in the China-Russia-U.S. triangle. Starting with the May briefings in the United Nations Security Council on discussing and controlling the humanitarian, political and nuclear safety environments in Ukraine. Chinese diplomacy presented a series of points whose implementation, according to Beijing, would improve the situation in the region. The leading issue for the Chinese side as well as other stakeholders remained the question of nuclear security. Beijing explicitly set a "red line," the crossing of which could change China's approach to Russian aggression in Ukraine. Secondly, the visit of US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken to Beijing and his meetings with Qin Gang, Wang Yi, and Xi Jinping in June caught the attention of politicians, the media, and international relations researchers. It was the first official high-level intergovernmental meeting between representatives of the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the US since 2018 when then Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, visited China. The diplomatic relations between the two sides, characterized by growing antagonism between Beijing and Washington, have yet to improve. An illustration of the deterioration in bilateral relations, both politically and economically, was the heightened tension resulting from the discovery of a "Chinese spy balloon" in US airspace and its subsequent shooting down. This led to the postponement of Antony Blinken's visit to China, initially planned for February of this year. Despite this, both sides sought a diplomatic balance and adopted a more conciliatory tone. What were the main topics discussed during Blinken’s visit to China, and what are the prospects for developing bilateral relations in the coming months?
China’s unchanged position on nuclear security
During the aforementioned UN SC briefing on May 15, 2023, the head of the Chinese Mission, Zhang Jun, emphasized the deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Ukraine. He called for a de-escalation and a cessation of hostilities. The three priority actions proposed by China include 1) compliance with the code of conduct according to international humanitarian law, particularly the absolute protection of civilian population and objects. In this context, China welcomed the expansion of aid by the international community and humanitarian agencies operating on the principles of impartiality and neutrality; 2) prohibition of crossing the "red line" of nuclear security. China clearly states that it does not allow the possibility of nuclear warfare or the use of nuclear weapons. One of the most pressing issues related to the conflict in Ukraine is the safety of nuclear power plant facilities. China, therefore, called for "maximum restraint and avoidance of words and actions that could escalate confrontation and lead to miscalculations." In this regard, Beijing committed to further supporting the actions of the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which involve maintaining constant communication with the parties involved in the conflict to ensure the safety of civilian nuclear facilities. 3) Efficient management of the "side effects" of the conflict. In this context, China seeks to secure its place in coordinating economic actions that minimize the negative consequences of the conflict itself, as well as in all likelihood, safeguarding its own interests related to the reconstruction of damaged civilian infrastructure in a postbellum environment. Confirmation of this thesis can be seen in April’s phone call between Xi Jinping and Volodymyr Zelensky. Informal discussions regarding Ukrainian domestic politics allow for the reconstruction of infrastructure during the ongoing war; however, the Chinese side is likely interested in another solution. This assumption is based on the belief that the Russian Federation, conducting a kinetic war in Ukraine, would be limited by China in operational terms, as the country would not want the destruction of infrastructure which would have been rebuilt by companies supported by Beijing. Additionally, any action against these particular projects would threaten the safety of Chinese citizens involved in the reconstruction of Ukrainian infrastructure. Such actions could lead to further tensions between the Kremlin and Zhongnanhai. Nevertheless, these are speculations and conjectures concerning an unknown future, as experts and conflicting parties emphasize that the current conflict may last for decades. In this context, reducing the risk of nuclear conflict remains a priority issue for China.
Swan Song of the Kremlin? Russia's risky nuclear weapons policy
During a meeting in March 2023, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin seemingly set "red lines" regarding the use of nuclear weapons in their bilateral relations. Both sides discussed the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. However, within a few days, they were confronted with information that Russia planned to deploy nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus. There was speculation at the time that Russia was sending a signal that its subordinate status in relations with Beijing was not an optimal solution for the Kremlin's political elites. Former US ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, noted that Putin and Lukashenko had humiliated Xi Jinping on the international stage with such an action. In response, on March 27, two days after Putin’s announcement of plans to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus, China reiterated its call for a de-escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and reminded the heads of state of Russia and China of their commitments. However, the situation is becoming increasingly complicated. On May 25, 2023, Minsk and Moscow reached an official agreement on deploying Russian tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory. This move could be interpreted as another step to deter the United States and its allies from actively providing military assistance to Kyiv. The announcement of the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus on March 25, as well as the official agreement on May 25, hinted that the next escalation step would be the actual relocation of Russian nuclear capabilities to a third country, previously announced for July 2023. However, according to President Lukashenko, both sides immediately initiated the transfer of weapons to Belarus. If the words of the Belarusian leader are not a political bluff, we are witnessing the first attempt since 1991 to deploy Russian nuclear potential beyond its own borders. Dmitry Medvedev, a representative of the Moscow regime, also addressed the issue. This time, Russia set a "red line" regarding ongoing military operations on Ukrainian territory. The former President of the Russian Federation emphasized that "the Anglo-Saxons underestimate the risk of nuclear escalation." Moscow's condition, which sets the aforementioned "red line," is Western support for the deployment of any nuclear weapons in Ukraine. This move has profound implications for the potential Western integration of Ukraine into EU structures and, above all, NATO. As part of its foreign and security policy, the United States deploys tactical nuclear weapons within NATO allied countries. Therefore, the risk of nuclear conflict in the medium and long term will be permanently embedded in the Central and Eastern European region. The main conclusion drawn from Moscow's nervous moves regarding nuclear escalation, which may jeopardize the Chinese-Russian political and economic partnership, indicates the diminishing military potential of Russia in conventional kinetic warfare, as indicated by the media in March 2023.
Awaiting Beijing's stance on the nuclear issue
In the aforementioned example of Vladimir Putin's plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons, China has taken a safe but firm stance. Beijing cannot envision Russia using nuclear weapons because Moscow still has rhetorical and real support from China regarding the conflict in Ukraine, mainly expressed at the UN forum and through the imports of “dual use” equipment and the exports of fossil fuels. If the actual deployment of nuclear missiles by Russia and Belarus proves not to be a bluff, China should begin the process of adopting a more assertive position towards Russia. The litmus test in this regard will be both official statements and voting patterns in the UN General Assembly and Security Council, ad-hoc high-level bilateral meetings, China's involvement in relations with Ukraine, and the value of bilateral trade. Balanced signals from Beijing will likely precede a radical change in rhetoric towards Russia. However, such a change should not be ruled out because in the face of the international narrative offensive manifested through a series of global initiatives (Global Security Initiative, Global Civilization Initiative, Global Development Initiative), China cannot afford to "lose face," particularly in front of those countries from the Global South. On the other hand, the increased assertiveness of Moscow in conducting nuclear activities may bring reputational benefits to the People's Republic of China (PRC). Since the beginning of the armed conflict in Ukraine, it has been said that Beijing, as the only global power, could have influence on the unpredictable actions taken by Moscow. The escalation of nuclear conflict in Europe will create a space for Chinese diplomacy to de-escalate nuclear risks effectively. Successful actions would be another "feather in the cap" for Chinese diplomacy, considering its recent successes in mediating the Iraq-Saudi Arabia conflict. China's role in resolving global challenges serves as a driving force for incorporating Chinese slogans and narratives of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) into the international discourse, something which Beijing has been vigorously pursuing.
A temporary easing of tensions in China-US Relations?
The Russian "nuclear scare" could have introduced or at least facilitated a temporary easing of tensions in China-US relations in order to manage this potential crisis. On May 10-11, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Wang Yi, State Councilor, Head of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, and member of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held a "frank, substantive, and constructive" meeting in Vienna. This was the first high-level meeting since the incident involving the flight of a "Chinese balloon" over US territory and the tense meeting between Anthony Blinken and Wang Yi on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in February 2023. During the talks, they discussed "key issues in bilateral relations" as well as the war Russia had been waging against Ukraine, and the Taiwan Strait issue. For the time being, maintaining a diplomatic channel at the highest level has provided a basis for at least partial coordination of actions on the international stage in the face of global conflicts and crises. These talks were preceded by a meeting between US Ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns, and Chinese Foreign Minister, Qin Gang, in Beijing. Qin Gang accused the US of a "series of wrong words and deeds" and "undermining the relationship and hard-earned positive momentum in China-US relations." Despite the rather sharp tone of the Chinese diplomat's statement, he emphasized the need to stabilize the "icy bond" and "avoid a downward spiral and unforeseen events." The Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs shifted the focus of bilateral relations towards Washington, stating that the United States should "correct its understanding of China and return to rationality." While the meeting did not represent a breakthrough in bilateral relations, it created a positive atmosphere for further discussions. According to Reuters, a series of diplomatic meetings delayed introducing new US sanctions against Chinese companies. They prevented the publication of a report analyzing the "spy balloon" conducted by the FBI. Therefore, intentional actions by Washington should be interpreted as a friendly gesture (as Qin Gang had demanded). For several days, there had been speculation about a possible meeting between China's Minister of Commerce, Wang Wentao, and US Trade Representative, Katherine Tai. On the day of the Russian-Belarusian agreement on the transfer of nuclear weapons, the Wang Wentao-Katherine Tai meetings were confirmed, as well as a Wang Wentao meeting with US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. The main goal of the meetings was to discuss pressing issues in economic matters in the two countries’ bilateral relations. Although both sides emphasized that the talks were complex, and their outcome unknown, the representatives of the world's two largest economies stated that diplomatic channels should be maintained at various levels. A new variable has also emerged in bilateral relations - China's new ambassador to Washington, Xie Feng. Although Xie described the relations between the two countries as facing "serious difficulties and challenges," he committed to significantly strengthening cooperation and exchanges. At this point, the conciliatory tone of the Chinese diplomat's statements led State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller to express satisfaction with Xie's arrival, stating " We look forward to working with the ambassador and his team." However, Xie is known for his confrontational tone, as evidenced by his comments towards the US regarding the shooting down of a Chinese balloon and during a meeting with Deputy Secretary of State, Wendy Sherman, in Tianjin, China, in 2021. Much depends, therefore, on the goodwill and intentions of both sides. Continuing the "thaw" after the diplomatic crisis in February this year could significantly reduce Russia's international position. These talks signal to Moscow that the decision to deploy nuclear capabilities has yet to be well received in Beijing with the possibility that these discussions may represent a common position shared by Beijing and Washington.
Complex background of China-U.S. relations for a state visit
Since the beginning of the year, Sino-US relations have been very tense. In 2023 alone, a series of incidents contributed to this, with the most significant being the cancellation of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's planned visit to China in February 2023 due to the intrusion and subsequent shooting down of a "spy balloon" by the US military. The Chinese side argued that the balloon was only used for collecting meteorological data, not intelligence. The Chinese government stated that the US had unnecessarily escalated the situation, resulting in the collapse of bilateral political relations, and had a significant impact on the economic aspect of bilateral relations between Beijing and Washington. Furthermore, the tense situation in bilateral relations was not eased by the planned deployment of US troops to Taiwan and the announced sale of US weapons worth $619 million to Taiwan on March 1, 2023. Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang emphasized at the time that if the US did not change its behavior, conflict and confrontation were likely to occur. However, it seems that the meeting between Jake Sullivan, US National Security Advisor, and Wang Yi, Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, at the end of March 2023, became crucial for the future state of Sino-US relations. The fact that these were discussions on real issues is evidenced by the similarity of the US and Chinese statements after the meeting. Nevertheless, this did not alleviate tensions. After the Sullivan-Wang meeting, several incidents escalated tensions, including the conversation between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, as well as the arrest of two men accused of "conspiring to act as agents of the Chinese government."
The mutual desire for a "reset"
Despite additional escalatory incidents, it is likely that in April, both sides, based on the Wang-Sullivan meeting, had decided to make subtle gestures towards a rapprochement and to break the diplomatic deadlock. One of these gestures was the statement made by Janet Yellen, the US Secretary of the Treasury, who appealed for "finding a way for [China and the United States] to live together and share global prosperity." Yellen also emphasized that the US, being the largest and most dynamic economy in the world, remains unwavering in its belief in the need to defend its values and national security. In this particular context, she emphasized the American "pursuit of constructive and fair economic relations with China." Additionally, US Ambassador to Beijing, Nicholas Burns, emphasized the readiness of the American side to engage in talks, expressing hope that the Chinese side would be willing to "meet halfway" on fundamental issues. Burns noted that in bilateral relations, it is necessary to find "better channels [of dialogue] between the two governments." This referred to the suspension of diplomatic channels by the Chinese side after Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August 2022 and the US administration effectively called for their reopening by the Chinese side. As of early May 2023, Richard Burns, in response to questions about a new date for Antony Blinken's visit, stated that the trip would be rescheduled "when the conditions for it are appropriate." And apparently, the conditions became suitable in early June because on June 6, Bloomberg, citing sources in the White House, was the first to report on Blinken's planned visit to Beijing in the "coming weeks." Indeed, during a phone call between Qin Gang and Anthony Blinken on June 14, the Chinese Foreign Minister expressed the hope that the US would be able to meet with China "halfway," effectively managing differences. Qin Gang thus literally repeated the previously mentioned words of Ambassador Nicholas Burns, giving the green light for a face-to-face meeting.
Blinken's Visits to China
As we know, Anthony Blinken met with Qin Gang, Wang Yi, and Xi Jinping in Beijing. Apart from analyzing the meetings, this should be seen as a qualitative leap in Sino-American relations. Until Blinken’s visit to China, High-level visits between the two countries had not been practised since 2018. Regarding the first meeting (and the longest one, lasting five and a half hours) with the Chinese Foreign Minister, the Chinese side emphasized that the talks were sincere, in-depth, and constructive, aligning with the American perception of the talks as candid, substantive, and constructive. However, it should be noted that the same conclusion was drawn from Jake Sullivan's meeting with Wang Yi in May 2023. This implies that both sides did not see Qin Gang's meeting with Antony Blinken as groundbreaking. Qin Gang pointed out that China-US relations are currently at their lowest point since establishing diplomatic relations in 1979. He also emphasized that such a status of bilateral relations needs to be consistent with both nations' fundamental interests and the international community's expectations. According to Chinese diplomacy, policy should be based on principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation proposed by President Xi Jinping. In light of the events in 2023, the Chinese Foreign Minister expressed hope that the US would meet China "halfway" and unexpected incidents would be resolved "calmly, professionally, and rationally." The most crucial issue from the perspective of domestic and foreign policy was Taiwan. Qin noted that the Taiwan issue is central to China's fundamental interests and poses the greatest risk to the smooth conduct of bilateral policy. As a foundation for further actions in bilateral relations, the Chinese side defined the implementation of the Xi-Biden consensus reached in Bali in 2022. They also proposed working group consultations to "address specific problems in bilateral relations." China also called for strengthening the expansion of cultural and educational exchanges, resulting in the mutual acceptance of more students, scholars, and the business community. On the other hand, the American statement mainly focused on emphasizing the importance of diplomacy and opening channels of communication to reduce "misperception and miscalculation." At the outset, the US Secretary of State stressed that he would "always defend the interests and values of the American people, cooperate with allies and partners to develop an American vision of the world based on freedom and openness, and always uphold an international order based on international rules." Issues that "cause concern for the US" were also mentioned although no specific areas were indicated. Apart from the Taiwan issue, this may refer to recent information that the Wall Street Journal had provided regarding China’s intelligence cooperation with Cuba. According to preliminary information, Cuba had agreed to build a Chinese "spy facility" to intercept electronic communications in the southeastern United States. Initially, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs avoided giving a direct response to questions about the media reports concerning the planned opening of a spy base in Cuba. They only stated that Beijing is "unaware" of the situation while accusing the US of espionage and "spreading rumors." The intensification in the long-term cooperation between the PRC and Cuba in the UN, coordinated within the Group of 77 (G77), should be understood as an attempt to redefine the global order through the UN. The synergy of China's cooperation with developing countries (G77 members) at the UN is a fact, and Cuba appears to be at the vanguard of this process. Returning to the main topic, the official statements from China and the United States have different emphases. China focuses on the Taiwan issue and its peaceful "resolution” while the United States has emphasized its hegemonic role in defending the status quo in international relations. This is related to promoting the principle of self-determination of nations, which does not align with China's policy of reunification with Taiwan.
Conversations with Wang Yi and Xi Jinping
In addition to the principal meeting between Antony Blinken and his Chinese counterpart, the US Secretary of State also met with Wang Yi, as well as President Xi Jinping. During the meeting with Blinken, Wang Yi strongly emphasized that China and the US are currently at a crucial moment in their relationship, where a choice must be made between dialogue, confrontation, cooperation, and conflict. The Chinese diplomat also spoke about the responsibility towards their own citizens, history, and the world, stating that the "spiral" of deteriorating bilateral relations must be reversed, and cooperation must be sought to find the right way for China and the US to coexist in the "New Era." Wang Yi identified the "misunderstanding of China by the US side, which led to misguided US policies towards China" as the main cause of the erosion in the two countries’ bilateral relations. In the face of the "hegemonic" remarks from the Qin-Blinken conversation, Wang called for the "abandonment of the template of hegemonic power" to stop the misguided assessment of China based on the perspective adopted by Western powers. Wang Yi further emphasized that this "abandonment of the template" would be essential as to whether US policy towards China can return to objectivity and rationality. Furthermore, Wang Yi "requested" the US side to stop propagating the "theory of threat" emanating from China, lift "illegal unilateral sanctions," as well as refraining from both suppressing the technological development of other countries, and "interfering in internal affairs." Many of these accusations have been previously formulated during briefings at the UN Security Council. In light of Wang Yi's highlighting of the detailed list of Washington's "wrongdoings," the top Chinese diplomat elaborated on only one aspect. According to Wang Yi, the Taiwan issue is about protecting national unity, and it represents the core of the primary interests related to the fate of all Chinese people and is an unwavering historical mission of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Wang added that China does not allow for compromises and concessions in this matter. He demanded, therefore, "more practical" adherence to the principle of One China and open opposition to Taiwan's independence. The concise statement from the US side mainly addressed the "responsible management of competition between the US and China through open channels of communication to ensure that competition does not turn into conflict." Additionally, it was emphasized that during the Blinken-Wang meeting, the US Secretary of State underscored the importance of defending the interests and values of the American people. Regarding the Blinken-Xi meeting, it should be noted that the meeting was announced shortly before its commencement. The previously cited Bloomberg report also referred to information about a "possible" meeting between the US diplomat and the General Secretary of the CPC. It is possible that the occurrence of the Blinken-Xi meeting itself was contingent on the outcome of Secretary of State Blinken's talks with Qin Gang and Wang Yi. During the 35-minute meeting, Xi Jinping hoped Blinken would make a "more positive contribution" to stabilizing bilateral relations. After the meeting, Blinken stated that he had had a candid, substantive, and constructive conversation with the president, discussing a range of important issues, particularly the need for responsible management of bilateral relations. The repetition of the phrase "candid, substantive, and constructive conversation" once again demonstrates little progress on fundamental issues.
Failure of the talks?
While restoring high-level dialogue in Sino-American relations can be seen positively, the actual results of the talks and the "political bargaining" of both sides may seem insufficient. Although the Chinese assurance to the US side about not supporting Russia with "lethal weapons" in the conflict with Ukraine can be somewhat considered a success of American diplomacy, it should be noted that such Chinese support occurs in a different dimension. The biggest problem is China’s transfer of dual-use equipment, including drones. Washington's main goal was to restore an active communication channel between military commands and reopen military exchanges, mainly for crisis management purposes. The de-escalation of the Taiwan issue and the maintenance of the status quo is one of the vital elements of American policy towards China. However, this contrasted with the mission of Chinese H-6K bombers that encircled Taiwan during a night mission on June 19. The coincidence of Chinese bomber patrols around Taiwan during Antony Blinken's visit to China was seen as a deliberate action aimed at exerting pressure on Washington. Another element of applying pressure on the US is the deepening cooperation with Cuba in intelligence operations. The Chinese side is using this to negotiate American commitments to Taiwan. However, the US side has not been idle. President Joe Biden, during a reception for Democratic Party donors and in the presence of media representatives, referred to Xi Jinping as a “dictator” while recounting events related to the "spy balloon" and Xi Jinping's alleged ignorance of its existence. And although the "epithet" was used in a broader context, it should be noted that the nervous moves from both sides during and immediately after Blinken’s visit to China indicate a disappointing outcome for both parties and a continuation of the struggle for supremacy in bilateral relations. There can be no talk of a reset or breakthrough in Sino-American relations after Antony Blinken's visit. Limited political gains and the worsening bilateral situation require a more substantial stimulus. Learning from the past, the current rapprochement process needs a decisive breakthrough moment, comparable to Henry Kissinger's or Zbigniew Brzezinski's contribution in the Cold War era. This puts pressure on the US, as China is gradually becoming more assertive in the case of Taiwan. Washington is well aware of possible concessions in this regard, but this time it will also be costly for China in other areas. Therefore, both sides need high-level channels to remain open as a negotiation process emerges. The stakes are high, and presidential elections in the US and Taiwan will be consequential for the future of Sino-American bilateral relations.