As of mid-2025, the US saw the number of applications for H-1B visas shrink by 27% as compared to the first half of 2024. H-1B visas are issued to employ foreign professionals. The reduction is likely a direct result of more stringent rules introduced by President Trump’s administration. The US government’s objective is to secure the job market primarily for U.S. citizens. Those who will bear the brunt of these changes will mostly be citizens of India – as Indians are a dominant group among H-1B holders. If this trend is to continue, it may also mean that European companies will face less American competition in attracting Indian specialised workers, especially IT professionals.
The decrease in the number of applications for H-1B visas is likely caused by more stringent rules introduced by President Trump’s administration, including a considerable increase in the price of the visa itself. For years now, the nationality that dominates among the H-1B visa recipients are citizens of India. Depending on the year, Indians could constitute as many as 70% of all recipients. In 2024 alone, the US saw the arrival of 200,000 Indians on H-1B visas. To judge the scale of this process, it is worth noting that the same year, the US authorities received a total of 400,000 applications for H-1B visas (although some of these would be applications for visa renewals). The main reasons why Indians receive so many H-1B visas is that the American IT sector is in constant need of employing large numbers of professionals – while India has scores of IT specialists to offer. The companies that dominate among the employers of Indian IT professionals on H-1B visas include five Big Tech giants: Amazon, Alphabet (owner of Google), Apple, Microsoft, and Meta (formerly Facebook).
The proponents of scaling down the H-1B visa system argue that American companies should focus on hiring American nationals; some of these proponents argue for the reduction of immigration into the US as such (especially immigration from non-white countries). However, even President Trump’s administration remains divided on the issue. Those opposing the H-1B visa system in its current form include the president’s advisor, Stephen Miller, known for his strong anti-immigration stance, as well Trump’s past advisor, Steve Bannon. However, a part of the Republican party and its supporters include businessmen who argue that the H-1B visas are required as the American talent pool is not enough to fill the needs of the job market. Those who speak in favour of retaining the H-1B visa system include Elon Musk, who had recently left the Trump administration but who is primarily a businessman (his company, Tesla, also hires a foreign nationals on H-1B visas). Another person who spoke in favour of H-1B visas is Vivek Ramaswamy, a Republican politician and a pharmaceutical tycoon (who ran against Trump in Republican primaries and whose family originates from India).
The opinions of Donald Trump himself on the issue appear to be fluctuating. During his first tenure as US President (2017-2021) attempted to freeze the H-1B visa program, but he was barred from this by the Supreme Court. Later, however, Trump issued contradictory statements on the visa system: he would praise it on some occasions and criticise it on others. However, the current moves made by his administration suggest that this time he indeed means to reduce employment of foreigners in the US. The US government is reportedly also considering ending employment rights for H-4 visa holders: H-4 are dependent visas, but the holders of H-4 visas who are spouses of H-1B visa holders are eligible for work – and this is a right that the Trump administration may be attempting to discontinue.
If this trend is to continue, it may also mean that European companies will face less American competition in attracting Indian specialised workers, especially IT professionals. It is very clear that attracting Indian talent is high on agenda of talks between European heads of state and the Indian government. This was one of the issues discussed by the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz or the Dutch Prime Minister Dick Shoof when they paid visits to New Delhi over the past months. Scholz, for instance, announced a steep increase of employment visas for India skilled workers. The same appear general conclusion appears to be true for other European states and their approach to India – mobility agreements and programs to attract Indian talent seem to be one of their priorities. Thus, if the Trump administration succeeds in scaling down the H-1B visa program, the European governments and companies should avail of this opportunity to attract more Indian talent.
