26.09.2025
After Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru announced his intention resign, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) began its search for a new leader. This time, five candidates have entered the race for the premiership: four men — former Minister of Economic Security Kobayashi Takayuki, former LDP Secretary-General Motegi Toshimitsu, current Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa, and Agriculture Minister Koizumi Shinjiro — and one woman, former Security Minister Takaichi Sanae. Each has less than two weeks to convince LDP supporters ahead of the October 4 vote. On September 24th, the party staged its first campaign rally outside Akihabara Station, with a goal to energize supporters and refresh the public image of the contenders.
The hottest issue in the campaign is immigration policy. The LDP candidates are seeking to outmaneuver populist groups such as Sanseito, which gained traction in previous elections with anti-immigration rhetoric. Their pledges, however, sound strikingly alike: tighter border controls, tougher screening, and crackdowns on the perceived risks posed by migrants. Japanese media, echoing these concerns, have highlighted the issue in the run-up to the vote.
Sanseito’s earlier success in the House of Councillors elections drew public attention to a range of alleged “threats and problems” tied to rising numbers of migrant workers and tourists. Many of these claims were misleading, but the fact remains: the number of foreign residents in Japan has risen sharply in recent years, surpassing 3.8 million in a country of 123 million. With pandemic restrictions lifted and the cheap yen, Japan is now experiencing a tourism boom—particularly visible in Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto. Migrants, residents, and tourists have become central to both the political and media debate, and the LDP cannot ignore the issue if it wants to win undecided voters.
Media reports emphasize stories that stoke fear: foreign trainees quitting jobs, African athletes vanishing from hotels during competitions, and alleged links between immigration and crime. On September 22, during speeches at LDP headquarters, all candidates pledged to address “foreign-related problems and crimes.” Takaichi Sanae, as expected, took the hardest line. She started her speech with listing cases of misbehavior by foreign tourists—including “kicking and hitting deer” in her native Nara—and declared: “If people from abroad come here just to trample on Japanese feelings, we must take action.” She also called for sending home migrants who apply for refugee status while, in her view, entering Japan purely for economic reasons. Motegi Toshimitsu promised a “zero illegal migration” program. Koizumi Shinjiro highlighted local concerns over the illegal employment of foreigners and the strain on public safety. The only candidate to sidestep the issue was Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa.
Another vital point is the surge of foreign capital in Japan, particularly in real estate markets in major cities. Reports warn of uncontrolled property purchases by Chinese and Hong Kong investors, and of loopholes in business visa programs exploited by citizens of China and Nepal. The government now plans to raise requirements for manager visas, boosting the minimum capital investment from 5 million yen to 30 million yen (about USD 203,000)—a move that could effectively kill the program. Here, too, the LDP candidates agree on further crackdown. Takaichi Sanae proposes a special commission to scrutinize foreign investment and stricter rules on property ownership, while Motegi Toshimitsu talks about restricting the sales of Japanese land to foreign capital.
In short, most LDP candidates have staked out near-identical anti-immigration positions, centered on tighter control of foreigners and foreign capital. Still, the ruling party struggles to outflank opposition groups that have built their popularity on anti-immigrant platforms. The hardening of the LDP’s stance has, in turn, spurred rivals to act. Nippon Ishin no Kai has recently proposed legislation that would cap the percentage of foreigners allowed to settle in Japan. Vice President Fujita Fumitake argued this would keep immigration “at a level society can reasonably accept.” He warned that “drawing on European experience, once foreign residents exceed 10 percent of the population, social tensions start mount.”
The next big issues in the campaign are growing inflation and stagnant wages. While Japan’s biggest corporations have offered the first meaningful raises in years (3–4%), rising food prices have swallowed up most of the gains for average consumers. Agriculture Minister Koizumi Shinjiro promises measures to boost productivity, raise real wages, and tame inflation, including a dedicated anti-inflation fund, fuel tax cuts, and higher tax-free allowances. One of his more interesting ideas is channeling extra tax revenues from inflation into growth stimulus programs. Takaichi Sanae pledges income tax cuts and a continuation of direct cash handouts for households, sticking to her long-held support for low interest rates and pro-business tax relief. Her platform includes scrapping the additional fuel tax and expanding local government grants. Notably, all LDP candidates reject opposition calls for cuts to the consumption tax as a tool against inflation.
Beyond immigration and the economy, some candidates have weighed in on lesser issues. The LDP will probably drop its 20,000-yen direct household subsidy plan, and most candidates oppose allowing married couples to adopt separate surnames. Questions about coalition-building also loom large, with most candidates favoring an expanded ruling coalition over a minority government.
Taken together, the LDP’s campaign reflects a desperate search for a strategy to win back younger and undecided voters. The choice of Akihabara—a hub for pop culture fans—as the rally’s venue was deliberate. The reaction of the public during a rally revealed Takaichi Sanae’s clear advantage: she enjoys strong public support and has the firmest anti-immigration stance. Koizumi Shinjiro, with his economy-focused and more moderate approach, also looks strong, particularly among LDP members whose votes will decide the leadership contest. As for other candidates, public opinion polls gives them slim chances. Still, Kobayashi Takayuki’s strong rally speech may boost his profile and strengthen his political future.
This article was prepared under the research project Institutional Determinants of Japan’s Economic Growth Strategy, funded by the National Science Centre (NCN), decision no. DEC-2022/45/B/HS5/00354.
